For the past couple of weeks, you may have wondered as to why you have not seen any sort of mention about tonight's Floyd Mayweather, Jr.-Victor Ortiz bout either here or on Twitter. Simply put, I didn't want to give it any more hype than it already has, much of it very bloated. Copious amounts of airtime has been dedicated to the promotion of the fight on mainstream media venues, as everyone has treated it like it is the biggest event of the year. In actuality, it's not--not even close (More than Pacquiao-Marquez III? Really?)--but by vaunted perception, it, sadly, is. The reality is this: Victor Ortiz should not have been matched up with Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and is nowhere close enough to being at his level to either warrant it or this level of attention. Of course, he garners much of it because of Mayweather (the only real reason), his rough-and-tumble childhood, and his brash talk of knocking him out, but if the non- or casual boxing fan steps away from the media pressers or the fighters' chirping, they might realize that much of the bout is smoke and mirrors…
Never mind the bout, much of Floyd Mayweather, Jr.'s recent bouts have been nothing more than that. Finally facing off against "Sugar" Shane Mosley and whipping him in the process? How about Mosley having not stepped into the ring 18 months prior? Dominating living legend Juan Manuel Marquez, the one man who can legitimately claim to have Manny Pacquiao's number? I initially was impressed with Mayweather's victory and gave him his due, until someone pointed out that it was Marquez's first time above 135lbs, at 142lbs--nearly ten pounds heavier than his last bout! I've backed off on my praise over time since then, as have I learned just how much even a few pounds gained/lost can effect a fighter or match. Carlos Baldomir? Champion, yes, but thanks in large part to Zab Judah's laxness in their bout, and nowhere in Mayweather's league to begin with, which made him easy pickings. Judah himself? Sure, he had formidable speed and power, but often cracked like an egg shell under pressure and discouragement, which occurred in their match-up. Ricky Hatton? Sensible, big name at the time, and maybe the one bout of his that did not feel cheaply-made, but like Baldomir, he was no real threat (though I give PBF credit for icing him with a rare KO). "Ah, but he beat Oscar De La Hoya!" Yes, but not at the height of his career earlier in the decade, when Mayweather had plenty of time and opportunities to challenge him. On top of that, it was by split decision, which could have gone DLH's way had he approached the whole fight like he did in the last couple of rounds.
Ortiz is no different from any of the others. The "threat" is there with his power, youth, and tenacity, which the press and the unassuming have been beating on, but not much has been made of his suspect mental strength, inadequate skills, or his relative inexperience. For the former, he has been on the rebound, especially after his victory in the thrilling Andre Berto bout from earlier in the year, but it is hard to forget his almost-legendary meltdown against Marcos Maidana in 2009, when he essentially quit in the face of pressure after the tide turned and he received a knockdown and a bad cut on his eye, which caused the referee to stop the fight with little protest from Ortiz. His post-fight comments about wanting to avoid serious injury felt more like the words of someone who wanted out when things went south for him and was no longer the boisterous hunter, than someone genuinely concerned for their safety.
His performance two years later with Berto showed off some new-found toughness when he was caught in a tit-for-tat firefight with knockdowns and momentum shifts galore, as well as maturity in his more measured and reflective post-fight comments, but I am not completely sold on it. There is still that wide-eyed youthfulness that remains where he talks a big game and speaks with great self-confidence, but it there is still an empty, hollow tone to it, not as glaring as before, but present nonetheless. There is also his slightly improved, but still non-world-class-caliber boxing skill, where he overleverages his shots, is still reckless from time-to-time, and defends himself poorly. And lastly, Berto--his greatest and toughest conquest to date--is no Mayweather, who is Berto, but far more crafty, thoughtful, defensive, and a much better, more varied employer of blinding hand speed. And unlike him, he also has a lengthier frame and tends to keep his distance and move about. He likes to make sport of his opponents like a cat batting with a corner mouse, and Victor Ortiz, with his goods and especially his faults, is just another tailor-made, selectively-chosen victim for Mayweather to look good against and bring in the bucks. If facing futility opposite Maidana was bad, how will Ortiz fare against someone who is not only better than him and all of his opponents, but laps him in skill, speed, and slickness, as well?
It may best serve him to apply pressure and stay active against Mayweather to give himself the appearance of trying to control the fight and keeping him on the defense, but at age 24, with an overall decent level of competition and an iffy corner, I don't think Victor Ortiz is ready for this level yet, either skill-wise or mentally. A steadier, more seasoned Ortiz who is more cognizant of what he needs to do in the ring right and how to make better use of his physical traits (and have better trainers), might put up a good fight versus Mayweather, but the present-day Ortiz has, literally, only a puncher's chance. If he can catch him with a strong, flush shot and capitalize on it, he could pull off the monumental upset (most likely early, as PBF is a slow-starter), but in all likelihood, Ortiz will try to bull rush him with nervous energy as Mayweather gets his bearings and take a few early rounds, only for Mayweather to turn it around quick from Round 4 on and tattoo a befuddled Ortiz to a stoppage in the eighth or ninth, who may even be on his bicycle by then, looking for a way to get out of the fight.
After that, cue the "May's the greatest!" and "Mayweather vs. Pacquiao?" talk and the stating of the obvious that Ortiz "was just not ready for a fight like tonight's" or was just a lowly commoner, complete with hand-wringing over why anyone pushed for the fight in the first place. Lather, rinse, and repeat…
Now just ignore the man behind the curtain…
Prediction: Mayweather, TKO8 (or 9) (if he catches him with a well-placed/timed or lucky shot, Ortiz, KO4).
Outcome: Mayweather, KO4. Yes, Ortiz was stopped, but how he was stopped wasn't anything like I or anyone else could have ever imagined. Apparently, Ortiz, who was already getting picked apart, intentionally head-butted Mayweather out of frustration and tried to apologize afterward with a hug and kiss on the cheek(!) as the action was on hold. Once they touched gloves and veteran referee Joe Cortez talked to ringside officials to restart it, Mayweather suddenly landed a one-two combo that iced Ortiz as Cortez, befuddled at the turn of events, began to count him out. Many called it a "sucker punch", while others pointed out Ortiz's infraction and that one is supposed to "protect themselves at all times", but honestly, it sounds like all of the above. Ortiz deserved it for his childish act, but Mayweather looked cheap for the way he retaliated (though Cortez deserved some blame for his handling of the "KO"). Then again, I'm not surprised considering the immaturity of the two. Guess I'll await for the replay to see how it all really went down…
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Or if the (seeming) conclusiveness of Mayweather-Ortiz has you sighing with indifference, there is always the (almost certain) barn-burner that will be taking place in Los Angeles tonight between Saul "Canelo" Alvarez and Alfonso Gomez opposite the action in Las Vegas. One is the cinnamon-headed, (apparent) heir-apparent to the "guts-and-glory" throne of late legend Arturo Gatti and the other is a former Contender fighter who, unlike many of his cast-mates, has actually improved his game since then and became better than expected (and he also TKO'd Gatti in his final fight). No, neither may ever reach the level of a Mayweather or even an Ortiz, but they are two guys that can kick up a storm and battle with tons of passion and heart. They also hold some(what) notable victories in their careers, so they have that going for themselves, too (Alvarez: Matthew Hatton, (old/faded) Carlos Baldomir, Jose Cotto, Lovemore Ndou; Gomez: (old/faded) Arturo Gatti, (old/faded) Jose Luis Castillo, Jesus Soto Karass). And lest not forget that this will be two Mexicans duking it out in Los Angeles…
You can keep your so-called "savior" of boxing…
Prediction: Alvarez, TKO8 (if he hurts Alvarez more, Gomez, TKO7). No need to go into long, sweeping paragraphs on this one. Expect a fast-paced slugfest from the first, on but Alvarez has more upswing than Gomez and Gomez does not have a ton of durability or time past 6-7 rounds. I'm probably being too generous, but Alvarez will likely be more than Gomez can handle past the third, despite him trying. On the other hand, Alvarez has almost no defense and is still very green compared to the more experienced Gomez…
Outcome: Alvarez, TKO6. Basically as predicted, it appears, but more of a wash for Alvarez, who held off a game, but overmatched, Gomez for much of it. And I originally was going to pick an Alvarez TKO6, too! :(
—One of a -very- few blogs that discusses about anime, boxing, and a little bit of randomness…
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